The demand for healthy and tasty baked goods among the population will always remain unchanged. And small bakeries can quickly adapt to the needs of their customers. Your own mini-bakery can be quite a popular enterprise. Its advantages are obvious. The baked goods are fresh all the time because they are baked often, but in small batches.
The products are distinguished by the most diverse range. Quality is increased due to small volumes and constant supervision of the preparation process. With the systematic organization of production and the correct construction and approach to the consumer, such a business can bring substantial income and mutual satisfaction to both the buyer and the owner.
Relevance and prospects for the development of such business
Small mini-bakeries have much more prospects than the largest bakeries. It’s easier for them to adapt to market demand and rebuild equipment for any product. It's easier to change the recipe. And if you find a good place, select knowledgeable assistants and experiment a little with the assortment, then in two months it will be possible to supply already regular customers with aromatic, crispy bread, dietary pastries and other delicious confectionery products. After all, many people want to buy not just bread, but healthy and fresh baked goods. For example, from sprouted grain, or from sparkling mineral water without yeast.
To start such a business, you need to find a suitable premises, purchase the necessary equipment and select smart staff. The main thing is to find an experienced, skilled baker who knows the technology. Next, if possible, you need to connect advertising, or come up with something yourself to attract customers. Business in mini-bakeries, in small areas, is especially relevant now.
My personal experience of opening a mini bakery is outlined in the following video:
Initial capital and preparation of necessary documentation
In order to open your own bakery, perhaps three hundred thousand rubles will be enough, but you can spend ten million or more.
Main cost items for creating a business (per year) in large cities:
- The rental price is nine hundred thousand rubles.
- Equipment (depending on capacity) – one million two hundred thousand rubles (one-time use).
- To make repairs – one hundred thousand rubles (one-time).
- Purchase of furniture – three hundred thousand rubles (one-time).
- Utility bills – two hundred thousand rubles.
- Payment of wages, up to one and a half million rubles.
Before starting a business activity, you should officially register as an entrepreneur or establish your own enterprise. For small and medium-sized businesses there are only two ways: .
Distinctive features:
- The individual entrepreneur will bear legal responsibility and will risk his property, and the LLC will be limited to the size of its investment.
- possible without the help of a lawyer in three days, the necessary documents: your passport, a notarized copy, an application for registration and a receipt for payment of the state fee. And you will need the help of a lawyer to submit and prepare documents. And a mandatory bank account, the presence of your own seal.
- The costs for an individual entrepreneur will be eight hundred rubles, and for an LLC - four thousand, plus the costs of a notary.
- In an individual entrepreneur there is a limitation on certain types of activities, but in an LLC there is a limitless scope of activity.
- Accounting calculations are not required for individual entrepreneurs, but are necessary for LLCs.
- You can dispose of income at your own discretion, and in an LLC, revenue should be distributed no more than once per quarter (payment of interest to community shareholders).
- An individual entrepreneur is not needed, and the LLC will count the minimum wage.
- Few people agree to cooperate with private owners, but even large companies and joint-stock communities work with LLCs.
- Reselling a business will be difficult and inexpensive, but an LLC will do it very quickly and profitably.
- Powers of attorney from individual entrepreneurs must only be notarized, but this is unprofitable and takes a very long time, and LLCs will be taken everywhere.
You must choose the option that suits you; the vast majority choose individual entrepreneurs.
If you have not yet registered an organization, then easiest way This can be done using online services that will help you generate all the necessary documents for free: If you already have an organization and you are thinking about how to simplify and automate accounting and reporting, then the following online services will come to the rescue and will completely replace an accountant at your enterprise and will save a lot of money and time. All reporting is generated automatically, signed electronically and sent automatically online. It is ideal for individual entrepreneurs or LLCs on the simplified tax system, UTII, PSN, TS, OSNO.
Everything happens in a few clicks, without queues and stress. Try it and you will be surprised how easy it has become!
Documents required to open a bakery
To start running this business, you need to prepare the following package of documents:
- The sanitary and epidemiological decision on production and products is approved completely free of charge by the Rospotrebnadzor institution, but only with the results of the examination.
- Certificate of Conformity - issued by the Federal Agency for Technical Regulation and Metrology.
- The decision of the fire inspectorate on compliance with fire safety requirements.
- Permits for the supply of equipment, premises, personnel, etc.
Drawing up a business plan
Opening a bakery is a business that will require large investments at first.
Initial costs will require considerable capital investment. This means that before opening a bakery, you need to calculate all the likely costs, risks, possible competitors -.
First, let's look at a sample business plan:
- First, we deposit 1,135,000 rubles.
- Monthly income will be 540 thousand rubles.
- Revenue 58,400 rubles.
- It turns out that such a business may pay off only in two years.
If we imagine this in more detail: let’s take, for example, an urban-type settlement with a population of about two hundred thousand people. Here you decide to open a bakery, with an assortment of about ten different types of baked goods.
First you need study competitors. If the village puts more emphasis on baking bread, then we will focus on cookies and cakes. It’s better to open a business as an individual entrepreneur, but you definitely need to keep accounting records and it’s better to hire an experienced accountant.
The business plan includes the operating hours of the bakery. Since these will mostly be night shifts from 11:00 pm to 11:00 am, you need to create a shift schedule. For example, work three in three, or two in two days. Sales workers work from 6.00 to 17.00. With a five-day work week and one day off.
Choosing a direction
Numerous bakeries, small private workshops, supermarkets, etc. are engaged in the production of bread and other baked goods. It will be difficult to compete with them, especially with small initial investments. But this is the case if you are thinking of opening a standard confectionery or bakery.
And in order not only to stay in this market, but also to come up with a type of enterprise that will result in a competitive advantage, you can, for example, cut down the range of some products and produce no more than eight items. And all baked goods should be different from those sold in most stores and stalls.
Preparing the premises
Choosing the right location for a mini-bakery is the key to your success in the future. There should be no other similar establishments near you - these are your competitors. If you are thinking of selling bread directly from the bakery, then the place must be a “pass-through” place. And if you limit yourself to production, then it should be well-appointed and practical in all respects.
To locate a basic set of equipment you will need an average of 80 square meters. m. area, a lot depends on the assortment. Some products will require special equipment, tables, which means the area should be larger.
Of course, you will need running water, a toilet, ventilation, etc. You will need a separate warehouse for storing raw materials and a separate room for baking and a packaging workshop.
Equipment preparation
High-quality equipment and highly qualified workers are a prerequisite for a successful process. All equipment is divided into basic and additional. The main elements include: dough mixing machines, dough sheeters, proofers, ovens, refrigerators, flour sifters. Additional items include storage shelves, molds, packaging machines, sinks, scales, knives and much more.
For a small mini-bakery you will need the following equipment:
- oven RUB 800,000;
- dough mixer RUB 280,000;
- flour sifter RUB 20,000;
- pastry table 4,000 rubles;
- electric mixer RUB 4,000;
- equipment for proofing dough RUB 55,000;
- machine for rolling out dough 40,000 rubles;
- hood RUB 20,000;
- blender RUB 3,000;
- electric stove 25,000 rub.
The approximate amount will be about a million rubles. You just need to immediately consider what kind of dough you will be working with: yeast, biscuit, puff pastry. The focus of the equipment needed for purchase will depend on this.
Recruitment
Finding personnel is not an easy task. After all, the work of a qualified baker is low-paid, but at the same time very difficult. On average, a baker earns up to nine thousand rubles, and a technologist receives even less, about six thousand per month.
To produce thousands of kilograms of baked goods per day you will need:
- production technologist;
- two bakers;
- cleaning woman;
- packer (if necessary);
- loader;
- driver;
- accountant (it is better to take it under a contract).
All workers are required to undergo a medical examination (having a medical record).
Promotion methods
When you create a business plan, you need to immediately worry about implementation. You can open your own store, or you can sell through other commercial outlets, and not necessarily only in the village, you can also outside it. There are bakeries that cooperate quite safely and successfully with wholesalers.
They buy baked goods and deliver them to tents, stalls, and shops. This option is not bad at all, because you can work without worrying about sales. And you can focus on increasing the range and quality of products.
You can trade “on wheels”, it is much cheaper than renting a store. In the regions, starting a trade from a car is much easier than, for example, in the capital. You can first rent such a van and then buy it. You only need permission from local authorities.
Calculation of payback, profit and expenses
In order for the business to be profitable, you need to do the following work: conduct your own marketing research of the bakery products market, study the demand, price, volume and range of your main competitors. Calculate the main quantities of future production. This is done so that you can get maximum income from your bakery.
The main factor that will affect your revenue is the cost of the main components. And the quality of the finished product will be affected by: the level of equipment, the technological process, the composition and properties of the ingredients.
Let's calculate based on initial information.
Average price of raw materials for making bread and other products:
- Premium flour per 1 kg – 13.80 rubles.
- Flour of the first – 13.40 rubles.
- Second flour – 12.00 rub.
- Rye flour – 11.40 rub.
- Sugar – 20.40 rub.
- Yeast – 30.50 rub.
- Salt – 4.60 rub.
- Vegetable oil 1 liter – 62.00 rub.
- Margarine 1 kg – 44.00 rub.
The productivity (P) of a bakery baking “Borodinsky” bread (0.9 kg), with one PKhP-6 oven, is ninety-six kilograms per hour.
Volumes for the year (YA) 360 days in two shifts, twelve hours each will be: GO = P x 12 x 2 x 360.
The productivity of the oven is derived from the following calculation using molds for baking Borodino bread (0.9 kg) and a trolley.
GO = 96 x 12 x 2 x 360 = 829,440 kg of bread.
Second grade flour 50 kg. Price per kg 12.00 rub. Total cost 600 rubles.
Rye flour 50 kg. Price 11.50 rub. Cost 575 rubles.
Yeast 1.5 kg. Price 29.50 rub. Cost 44.25 rubles.
Salt 5 kg. Price 4.50 rub. Cost 6.75 rubles.
Result: weight about 150 kg costing 1230.00 rubles.
Yield according to this recipe: about 150 kg. For 1 kg of product, the cost will be approximately 8.9 rubles.
It is also necessary to take into account the costs of electricity, utility bills and rent. workers based on six people will be about eight thousand rubles per month per person.
As a result of all calculations, the bakery’s payback will be from ten to eighteen months.
Why is this business worth doing? What documents and permits are needed? What equipment is needed? Read about this and much more in our material.
Bakery and confectionery shops are a relatively new format of catering establishments and one of the most promising segments on the Russian market (unlike Europe, where they are extremely common and in demand). The basis of the bakery and confectionery business is the sale of bakery products, and the baking concept of the enterprise is expressed in the presence of its own bakery.
Why is the format of these establishments so interesting to investors?
- First of all, this is due to the relative newness of the business and the absence of much competition. The competitors of bakeries and confectioneries are coffee shops, confectionery stores, and bakery and confectionery departments of large retail chains. The profitability of bakeries is comparable to the profitability of coffee shops, and sometimes even exceeds it.
- Such a business has absolutely predictable criteria for decline/growth, which depend on the income of the population, so it is convenient to work in it. Here we should proceed from the assumption that the development opportunities of an enterprise depend in direct proportion to the purchasing power of consumers.
- We can easily transform a single business into a network version, with semi-finished products produced centrally in our own workshop, and sales take place through a network of bakery stores.
- The percentage of markup on bakery products is quite high, even in the case of selling products from third-party manufacturers.
- And finally, this business is relatively simple, especially in the case of an incomplete production cycle.
Business characteristics
The average price of bread products in bakeries and confectioneries is significantly higher than the cost of conventional mass-produced bread. Therefore, its consumers will be people belonging to the middle and high class of the population, with a sufficient level of income to make regular purchases.
The opening hours of a bakery and pastry shop are usually similar to the opening hours of shops. The main peaks of traffic: during the daytime, when people buy food for lunch, and in the evening, when they purchase products on the way home. If the bakery is well located, you can expect good morning sales.
The business concept is represented mainly by two types of establishments:
- bakery + store selling bakery products (in this article we are considering exactly this option);
- bakery + shop + cafeteria.
The assortment list of the bakery and confectionery is:
- bread, including popular sliced bread and its derivatives; a variety of high quality breads: German, Italian, French, etc.; bread with various additives - onions, cheese, olives, garlic, nuts, raisins, dried apricots, bran, cereals, sesame seeds, etc. (in total, at least 10 varieties, price range - 40-150 rubles per item).
- baked goods and confectionery - buns, pies, cakes, sweets.
- sandwiches, croissants.
- related products - ready-made confitures, marmalades and packaged drinks.
Note from Moneymaker Factory: you can read about the features of selling cream confectionery products.
The number of visitors to a bakery directly depends on its location. With good traffic, from 800 to 1000 customers can be served per day, normal traffic is from 200 people, while the cost of the average check is from 200 to 400 rubles.
Registration
A business is registered as an individual entrepreneur or LLC (our material will help you make the right choice: which is better to open - an individual entrepreneur or an LLC?, and you will learn about all the organizational steps that a novice businessman needs to take from the article on how to organize your business).
Relevant OKVED codes:
- 15.81 - “Production of bread and flour confectionery products of non-durable storage” (suitable for baking bread, buns, pies, cakes, pastries);
- 15.82 - “Production of dry bakery products and flour confectionery products for long-term storage” (for the production of crackers, cookies, etc.);
- 52.24 - “Retail trade in bread, bakery and confectionery products”;
- 52.11 - “Retail trade in non-specialized stores primarily in food products, including drinks, and tobacco products.”
Note from Moneymaker Factory: We recommend that you study the material on how to independently conduct accounting and tax accounting using the Internet service My Business.
The activities of bakeries and confectioneries are regulated by the following regulatory documents:
- NTP-APK 1.20.02.001-04 "Technological design standards for low-capacity enterprises for the production of confectionery products";
- VNTP 02-92 "Technological design standards for bakery industry enterprises";
- as well as numerous GOSTs, incl. GOST 26987 - 86, GOST 27842 - 88, GOST 24557 - 89, etc.
Permissions
It is impossible to open a bakery and pastry shop without obtaining a number of permits. You will need:
- Coordinate the placement of the bakery in the selected premises with the local administration and authorities such as Rospotrebnadzor, architectural and fire services.
- Coordinate the recipe of products sold with Rospotrebnadzor in case of using new or non-standard food raw materials in production.
- Receive medical records for employees.
As for the mandatory certification of bakery products, it has been cancelled. To confirm their quality, the manufacturer simply must fill out a declaration with which he confirms that his products comply with all accepted standards. However, to increase the competitive attractiveness of the product being sold, it is recommended to obtain a certificate on a voluntary basis.
The list of all necessary permits may vary depending on the territorial location of your enterprise and regional legislation. You should check this directly with your city administration.
Room
The optimal places for placing bakeries and confectioneries are those with good traffic throughout the day, located in the city center (“office” areas, places of entertainment and recreation) or close to transport interchanges (metro stations, bus stops). In residential areas where people with low incomes live, it will be almost impossible to find buyers willing to buy bread several times more expensive than in a neighboring store.
For the same reason, it makes sense to open such a bakery in relatively large settlements (from 250 thousand inhabitants) with a fairly homogeneous business environment. If you still consider outlying urban areas, you should pay attention to new residential areas: solvent buyers purchasing apartments may well be your clients.
If we talk about the size of the premises, this, first of all, depends on whether the production workshop will be located in the main premises, as well as on the selected production cycle (full or incomplete). For a bakery and confectionery without a workshop (or an incomplete production cycle), an area of 70 to 100 square meters is sufficient. m, with a full cycle you will need from 100 to 150 sq. m.
The premises of a bakery and pastry shop are not allowed to be separate: it may well be located on the first floor of a residential building, but, according to the rules of the SES, it cannot be a basement. It is desirable that the building has large glass display windows; they can later be decorated with attractive lighting.
The format of modern bakeries and pastry shops is borrowed from French boulangerie, so when choosing a design solution for your premises, you can adhere to the rules characteristic of the design of their French counterparts. These are: the use of warm “appetizing” shades (milk, cream, chocolate, terracotta, beige, etc.), the use of natural materials (wood, cane, flowers, textiles), and an information stand for writing with chalk is also popular. Overall, the bakery should create an atmosphere of freshness, comfort and warmth.
SES requirements, structure of bakery and confectionery premises
For the effective operation of an enterprise, it is necessary not only to choose the right premises, but also to organize it correctly. In addition to the sales area, the bakery and confectionery should have:
- manufacturing facility;
- packing room;
- raw material stock warehouse (for a day);
- storage room for finished products;
- auxiliary premises;
- waste storage room.
At the same time, all the rules for such SES enterprises must be observed: there must be hot and cold water in the room, ventilation must be provided, a toilet room must be provided, the ceilings of the production workshop must be whitewashed, and the walls must be tiled.
Production cycles
Production of products in a bakery and confectionery can be carried out either on the basis of a full cycle or incomplete. The quantity and range of necessary equipment directly depends on this.
Incomplete cycle: finished dough is purchased from suppliers as semi-finished products (delivered frozen). Next, in the bakery and confectionery shop, the technological process of bread production is carried out: molding and baking. This process is not labor intensive and looks like this: the semi-finished product is placed in a proofer for approximately 40 minutes, where it is thawed to room temperature, and then baked in the oven for 20 minutes. For this cycle, a proofing cabinet, a refrigerated display case, a chest freezer and a convection oven will be sufficient.
With a full production cycle, all stages of bread preparation are carried out: dough production, shaping of bakery products and their baking. In this case, a hardware production system is used using various installations and machines.
Which option should you choose?
Thus, in order to minimize initial investments, it is reasonable to use an incomplete production cycle, and when expanding the business - a full one.
Equipment
For the full production cycle of bakery products, you will need the following basic equipment:
| Image | Name | PurposePrice, rub. | |
|---|---|---|---|
- Capital investments: 1,123,100 rubles,
- Average monthly revenue: 535,000 rubles,
- Net profit: 57,318 rubles,
- Payback: 23 months.
A feasibility study for opening a business in the field of food production - a mini-bakery, which can be used as a sample for writing a business plan, as well as an example for calculating the economic feasibility of starting an activity.
Target: Justification of the feasibility and effectiveness of organizing a business for baking bakery products.
Project Description
Project idea: mini bakery
The idea is to open a mini-bakery in the city “N” (population 270 thousand people), specializing in baking bakery products.
Range.
Planned product range:
- Butter buns (8 types)
- Cupcakes
- Lamb products
- Bagels
- Cottage cheese
Competition
Currently, in the city of “N” there are 2 bakeries and 3 mini-bakeries, all specializing in the production of bread products (bread).
In this regard, the opening mini-bakery will specialize in the production of bakery products (100% assortment). The main competitive advantage is the sale of only fresh baked goods.
Organizational form and taxation system.
Organizational and legal form of business: “individual entrepreneur”. Form of taxation: Simplified taxation system, income minus expenses, 15%. Accounting: At the initial stage, tax and accounting will be outsourced to a specialized accounting firm. After organizing all production processes and debugging sales, the business owner will keep records independently using the “My Business” online service.
Operating mode:
The bakery will be open daily.
From 00:00 to 10:00 for employees (baker, assistant) directly involved in baking bakery products. This category of employees will work in shifts, two after two.
From 7:30 to 16:30 for employees (manager, sales representative) who are involved in the marketing and sale of finished products. This category of employees will work a 5-day work week, with alternate days off.
General staffing:
Required equipment.
To organize a business you need the following set of equipment for a bakery:
| Name | Col. | Price | |
| Bakery oven HPE-500 | 1 | RUR 34,794 | |
| Proofing cabinet ShRE 2.1 | 1 | 19760 rub. | |
| Flour sifter PVG-600M | 1 | RUB 21,708 | |
| Dough mixer MTM-65MNA | 1 | 51110 rub. | |
| Hearth sheet for HPE 700x460 | 20 | 584 rub. | |
| Exhaust umbrella 10x8 | 1 | 7695 rub. | |
| Single-section washing bath | 1 | 2836 rub. | |
| Two-section washing bathtub VM 2/4 e | 1 | 5744 rub. | |
| Refrigeration CABINET R700M | 1 | 24420 rub. | |
| Pastry table SP-311/2008 | 1 | 13790 rub. | |
| Wall-mounted food table SPP 15/6 | 1 | 3905 rub. | |
| Portion scales CAS SW-1-5 | 1 | 2466 rub. | |
| Portion scales CAS SW-1-20 | 1 | 2474 rub. | |
| SK rack | 1 | 6706 rub. | |
| Trolley-stud for HPE TS-R-16 | 1 | 17195 rub. | |
| Total expenses for the purchase of baking equipment: | 226283 rubles | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Product sales channels
Main distribution channel: small retail stores located in the city “N” and nearby settlements. Sales through chain (regional and federal) grocery stores are not planned in 2013.
Project Implementation Plan
Calendar plan
According to the calendar business plan for a mini bakery, the launch period for the company is 2 months. All stages associated with opening a business are the responsibility of the business owner.
| Stage name | Mar.13 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 decade | 2nd decade | 3rd decade | 1 decade | 2nd decade | 3rd decade | 1 decade | |
| 1 Registration of activities with the Federal Tax Service, ordering a stamp | |||||||
| 2 Opening a current account | |||||||
| 3 Conclusion of a lease agreement for a production workshop | |||||||
| 4 Payment for equipment (baking line, car, equipment) | |||||||
| 5 Repair of the premises in accordance with the requirements of the SES for food production, connection to electrical networks, other expenses | |||||||
| 6 Coordination with the SES of the workshop premises | |||||||
| 7 Line installation, installation supervision, commissioning, test baking | |||||||
| 8 Coordination with Rospotrebnadzor of the recipe, technical specifications and instructions for manufactured products. | |||||||
| 9 Recruitment | |||||||
| 10 Conclusion of an agreement with suppliers and buyers | |||||||
| 11 Start of activity | |||||||
Total cost estimate for the project:
| Expense item | Amount of expenses, rub. | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Registration of activities with the Federal Tax Service | 15 000 | State duty, ordering a seal, opening a bank account, others |
| Cosmetic renovation of the premises, bringing the premises in accordance with the requirements of the SES | 100 000 | - |
| Purchase of equipment for baking bakery products | 223 104 | - |
| Purchase of vehicles | 450 000 | Bread van for 128 trays on the base, GAZ-3302 2010 model year. |
| Purchasing tableware | 30 000 | - |
| Recruitment (advertising) | 5 000 | - |
| Creation of inventory | 50 000 | - |
| Working capital (financing activities until breakeven) | 150 000 | - |
| other expenses | 100 000 | Connection to electrical networks, approval of specifications and technical specifications for products |
| Total | 1 123 104 |
According to the calculations carried out, to open a business, investments in the amount of 1.1 million rubles are required.
Planned financial performance indicators.
Planned revenue and profit for 2013-2014.
According to the organizational plan, the start of the company’s activities is planned for March 2013, and achievement of self-sufficiency is expected in May 2013.
The company's activities are seasonal, the peak of sales occurs in the period September - November and March-April, in the remaining months there is a seasonal decrease in revenue.
Expenditure part.
The costly part of the bakery's activities includes the following expenses:
- Cost of manufacturing products. This line includes the costs of purchasing flour, yeast, margarine, sugar and other ingredients.
- Variable expenses. Employees' wages based on output (12% of revenue)
- General expenses: This group of expenses includes expenses for wages of employees (fixed part), social contributions, rent for workshop premises, fuels and lubricants, machine repairs, utility bills, administrative expenses, accounting expenses, as well as other expenses.
Planned structure for the distribution of funds received from buyers for 2013-2014.
| Expenditure | ||||
| Cost of manufacturing products | ||||
| Employees' salaries are variable (depending on output) | ||||
| Fixed expenses | ||||
| Profit before tax | ||||
Calculation of return on investment.
- Project start: January 2013
- Start of activity: March 2013
- Reaching operational break-even: May 2013
- Reaching forecast revenue: June 2013
- Project payback date: November 2014
- Project payback period: 23 months.
Opening risk analysis
The process of implementation and further operation of the project may be complicated by a number of risks and negative factors, which are given in the analysis of risk factors and opportunities for the operation of a mini-bakery. To determine the degree of influence of these risks and their danger to business, we will conduct qualitative and quantitative analysis.
Qualitative indicators are determined by an expert assessment of the likelihood of the threat occurring. Quantitative analysis shows the degree of risk impact in actual terms.
Qualitative risk analysis of the project
The entire risk zone is divided into external, where the influence of the general economic situation and events not related to the business management process is especially noticeable, and internal, which directly depends on the effectiveness of the organization of management and implementation of the business.
Table 1. Main external risks of the project
| Risk name | Risk assessment | Risk characteristics and response methods |
|---|---|---|
| Increase in raw material costs | The risk will lead to an increase in the cost of products and a decrease in the marginal part of the income. Risk compensation occurs by increasing the selling price of products or revising weight requirements. To mitigate the risk, it is necessary to constantly monitor the supplier market and conclude long-term contracts. |
|
| Opening of N direct competitors in the city | When direct competitors appear, the existing market capacity is proportionally divided between participants, which leads to a decrease in sales. To overcome risk at the organizational stage, a policy of separation from competitors should be pursued and consumer loyalty should be maintained. |
|
| Seasonal decline in sales | The risk entails a decrease in average annual sales figures, increases personnel costs, and leads to fluctuations in the intensity of use of production equipment. The risk is mitigated by competent advertising and organizational policies. |
|
| Changes at the state level in regulatory requirements for bakery products | The risk may lead to a revision of production flow charts and assortment base. |
All external risks can be mitigated if, at the organizational stage of the business, you develop a crisis management strategy, maintain competent positioning and constant contact with the buyer.
Table 2. Main internal risks of the project
Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
All external and internal risks have a single negative consequence - a decrease in profits. The reasons for the decrease in profit may be:
- increase in raw material costs of products due to increased prices for materials, raw materials, and labor;
- discovery of direct competitors who will be able to win their own market share;
- decrease in consumer demand due to unsatisfactory quality and service, as well as seasonal.
Quantitative analysis of investment risks can be carried out using the sensitivity analysis method using the internal rate of return (NPV) as the main parameter. However, having experimental data specific to a specific market (city N with a population of 270 thousand people), we use the practical calculation method.
The degree of influence of an increase in raw material costs and an increase in selling price
Calculated by calculating the elasticity of demand. With the average cost of products (bun buns (8 types), muffins, bagel products, bagels, cottage cheese) in the range of 19-23 rubles, the increase in the final price will have the following indicators:
Thus, we see that with a low average cost of products, a rise in price can lead to a slight increase in demand (due to consumer expectations), and a rise in price by 20-25% (a significant increase in commodity prices that do not fit into the framework of annual inflation) will lead to loss of an average of 4.5% of customers. The risk has a low quantitative value.
Degree of influence of the competitive environment
To calculate the degree of influence of competition, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the competitive environment and calculate the market share of each operator. The emergence of a new player always entails a redistribution of shares; at the first stage, this occurs at the expense of the weakest representatives of the industry. In our case, the project involves the use of counterparties (distribution channels - small retail stores located in the city "N" and nearby settlements), which protects against the direct influence of a competitor under long-term and strict contractual conditions (exclusive partnership).
With a total market share of 6%, the degree of influence of the new competitor has a relative share of 1.2% - this is how much a mini-bakery can lose when opening a similar enterprise in the sales area.
The degree of influence of seasonality and level of service
Taking into account the average seasonal decrease in sales of bakery products in the summer within 10-15%, and the basic requirements of buyers for products,
Project risk ranking
The most likely are marketing and seasonal risks of decreased demand, which may be triggered by an increase in the cost of raw materials and the opening of direct competitors. These are the most critical threats, which should be anticipated at the stage of organizing and implementing a business idea.
Relevance of a mini-bakery business plan
General trends
Today, the market for bakery products in Russia has not yet established itself due to the revaluation of values and the general trend of environmentally friendly and healthy food. Over the past ten years, traditional varieties of bread and bakery products have significantly given way to recipes borrowed from the West: croissants, baguettes, croutons, ciabattas, cereal breads and much more. The usual tin bread, capital loaf, rye and Darnitsky, Moscow, bran and Borodinsky, as well as other varieties produced by municipal bakeries, have lost their top positions, and now the distribution of consumer attention falls in equal shares on traditional offerings and borrowed ones (52% to 48%):
Dynamics of growth in consumption of bread varieties
that is, if back in 1970 Western trends had little influence on the choice of buyers who preferred Soviet-made products, then since the 1990s there has been an increase in the influence of Western technologies and emerging commercial competition, which has made it possible to significantly expand the range of bakery products. By the 2000s, traditional breads had lost more than half of the market. This is largely due to the transition of post-Soviet industries into private hands, which picked up the trend and began to produce fashionable and in-demand products.
| 1970 | 1995 | 2000 | 2010 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Traditional varieties | |||||
| Borrowed |
By 2010, growth dynamics had decreased, and consumers began to lose interest in foreign recipes. In addition, state policy to support national values also influenced the formation of relative equilibrium: now there is equality of assortment choice between tradition (familiar varieties) and borrowing. As for the bakery group, the trends are similar.
The main trend in the bread and bakery products market in the current period is healthy eating, freshness, naturalness. Supermarkets' own bakeries have become very popular, where aroma marketing works well: the smell of fresh baked goods ensures high sales. Traditional factory bakeries are popular among the older generation due to their familiar way of operating and assortment.
According to the Informkonditer IAC, Russians most often buy bakery products at specialized outlets (branded bakery stores, bakeries) and as related products in supermarkets.
Since 2010, Russia has seen a positive growth trend in the production of confectionery products, which constitute internal competition for bakeries, displacing them from store shelves.
Level of competition and foreign manufacturers
The Russian bakery market offers domestic and foreign products. The share of imports is no more than 22%. The main suppliers are Finland and Lithuania. In total, according to statistical authorities, about 28 thousand enterprises in the state are engaged in the production of bakery products - mostly representatives of medium and small businesses.
If we consider the structure of production, the bulk of bakery products are produced in factories:
Structure of bakery products production
About 75% of all traditional bread production is a “social” product. The natural segmentation of bakery products from large manufacturers is ranking by categories:
- Core production (up to 80%) bread- the traditional assortment includes up to 25 items;
- Secondary production: baguettes and loaves - about 5 items;
- Additional production:
- non-traditional and borrowed varieties of bread, pita bread, crispbread, etc. - up to 10 positions;
bakery products and pastries - about 25 items.
- non-traditional and borrowed varieties of bread, pita bread, crispbread, etc. - up to 10 positions;
Despite intense competition in the industry, the niche of bakery and butter products remains unfilled, which appeared due to the redistribution of zones of influence between manufacturers:
- large factories are focused on bread production and do not pay due attention to the bakery assortment. They do not have a wide enough network for selling buns. This is due to high logistics costs and competition with supermarkets, which find it more profitable to sell their own baked goods;
- supermarket bakeries, in turn, cannot compete in all consumer segments, and sell bakery products as minor impulse purchases. Those. They do not release the production of factories (in full), but they also do not satisfy demand with their volumes.
Due to this, the main competition in the production and sale of bakery assortments occurs among private bakeries. The main tools for successful competition in such an environment are an understanding of buyer values and a competent sales system.
Consumer motives and values
According to the results of an analysis conducted by the Institute of Agricultural Marketing, the main selection criteria when purchasing bakery products (in descending order):
- freshness;
- appearance;
- price;
- package;
- manufacturer.
The choice of place to purchase bakery products and baked goods occurs on the principle of one-time (all products in one place) or incidental: proximity to the place of consumption - home, work, educational institution.
Cities with a population of over 100 thousand already have formats that have their own mini-bakeries. This has increased the influence of retailers on the market structure, since such private retail production meets the basic requirements of freshness and low prices. But experts name district grocery stores, discounters and supermarkets among the most successful formats for promoting bakery products.
But it is worth considering that the products of bakeries will not displace the products of large manufacturers, since the latter offer a “social” range of traditional products. Competition can take place in the format of a segmented approach (children's series, women's low-calorie, environmentally friendly, rich in healthy elements, etc.).
conclusions
Due to the redistribution of values, non-traditional recipes for bakery products (borrowed, new, etc.) are very popular today - this gives new market operators the opportunity to conquer their own segment through the original assortment.
The competitive struggle and forced cooperation of bakeries and hypermarkets has led to the fact that the niche of bakery products has not been filled and cannot yet satisfy the existing demand.
The production of bakery products for a mini-bakery can be profitable and successful if the sales system is properly developed and focused on consumer expectations and values.
It is better to sell your own products through district stores (deli format near your home/school/university) or discounters.
Potential competition for bakery products can come from confectionery products, the production of which has been growing for four years now. To mitigate the risk, it is worth taking into account in strategic planning the possibility of expanding the range by producing confectionery products.
Bread is the main food product of the population of our country. That is why the business related to bakery products is always profitable and strives for development. The question of how to open a bread kiosk or a small shop selling bread is not particularly difficult. The success of this idea will be brought by careful preparation and consideration of all the positive and negative stages and nuances of this business.
Activity plan
From the very beginning of entrepreneurial activity, it is necessary to draw up a business plan for a bread kiosk.
To do this you need:
- by registering, obtain the status of an entrepreneur;
- obtain a license from Rospotrebnadzor;
- draw up a lease agreement for the land where the kiosk will be installed;
- buy and register a cash register.
The range of bakery products and the appearance of the bread shop are important details when opening a retail outlet that need to be thought out in advance. In order to open a kiosk selling bread, you need to purchase the appropriate equipment for use. Showcases should be open and ventilated, because bread is a perishable product.
Own equipment
If you want to open a kiosk, and not just sell bread, but also do your own baking, then it is advisable to immediately purchase a small-sized oven and scales. It is advisable to create a life support system and connect an alarm system. It is advisable to purchase and sell baked goods in closed, sealed packaging. It protects the product from premature spoilage. Before purchasing a stall, you should make sure that it complies with SES standards.
Be prepared that it may take quite a lot of time to install and open a bread kiosk. The administration issues a permit if there are photographs of the site, a topographic map, with the obligatory indication of the exact location of the land plot (this can be done independently in some cases), and strong arguments to explain the purpose of using the territory. Otherwise, the entrepreneur will not be allowed to open a kiosk.
Work with suppliers and personnel
Due to the short lead times for the sale of bakery products, it is desirable that the supplier be local. To make it easier to adjust the range of purchased goods, it is worth keeping records of the products sold. Over time, this will help you to abandon baked goods that bring the least profit.
Related products are needed at any retail outlet. In the case of a bread stall, these can be various buns with and without filling, muffins, bagels, cookies, pita bread, etc.
It is necessary to organize daily delivery of goods, because bread and bakery products quickly lose their presentation. Regular deliveries will significantly refresh the assortment and attract customers.
Ideally, it is best to cooperate with large manufacturers. They have well-established daily deliveries of fresh products, various systems of discounts and deferred payments, which can be useful for a novice entrepreneur who decides to open a kiosk selling baked goods.
Qualified personnel that meet the requirements and know how to work with people is also one of the steps to successful business. It is important to remember that food products are sold at the outlet, so the seller must have a health certificate!
Pros and cons of the bread business
Having decided to open a bread kiosk, an entrepreneur must foresee the negative aspects of this type of activity. This is very high competition and government regulation of prices for this type of product. You only have to count on maximum turnover.
Having prepared the necessary documents, decided on the location of the kiosk, and found suppliers and sellers, you can safely move on to the financial cost of the issue.
Let's make calculations before opening a point of sale:
- the cost of the kiosk will be approximately 200 thousand rubles;
- Registration of land for rent will cost 500 rubles. for every month;
- equipping a retail outlet with equipment will cost about 20 thousand rubles;
- the seller's salary will be at least 7 thousand rubles;
- purchase of goods - from 30,000 per 1,000 pieces;
- registration of individual entrepreneurship from 20 thousand rubles:
- licensing – from 20 thousand rubles.
To summarize our calculations: to run a bakery business you need to spend from 300,000 to 400,000 rubles.
He went several times to help budding entrepreneurs, but they were in no hurry to buy new equipment. Instead, the partners invited Bunyakov to invest in their company. His wife Anastasia convinced Roman to accept the offer. They met in the late 1990s in one of the first European-style bakeries in Russia - Delifrance. Anastasia worked as the manager of the establishment, and Roman worked there as a baker.
“There were huge queues at Delifrance. People bought two or three fresh baguettes, despite the fact that they cost several times more than regular loaves. We were so nostalgic for those times that we decided, what if this is a chance to repeat that success,” says Bunyakov. So he became a co-owner of the Varenishnaya bakery. They didn’t make dumplings there, but rolls with jam and marmalade, baked pies and bread. The finished products were sold to cafes and restaurants, and from time to time Bunyakov exported goods to food markets and food festivals.
At one of them, he met Olga Dobychina, who, together with her husband Daniil Nikitin, was promoting a Scandinavian brand of tableware. She invited Roman to become a partner in a new project - a bakery on the territory of the Danilovsky market. “Maxim Popov (at that time the manager of the Danilovsky market. - RBC) He offered us unique conditions - 50 thousand rubles. per month for 32 sq. m,” says Bunyakov. “This was one of the first such projects, and the guys’ eyes sparkled. The place I chose for them was not the most accessible, so the price was good. People walked through the entire market to buy good bread, and at the same time they also bought everything else,” recalls Maxim Popov. The budget for opening a bakery called “Baton” was only 450 thousand rubles.
Bread on the market
So, in June 2014, Varenishnaya acquired a good sales channel - the Baton bakery, co-owned by Bunyakov, Dobychina and Nikitin. “Varenishnaya” baked, we took it all to the market, Olya and Danya arranged the display, and sold it at the counter one by one,” says Bunyakov. He was amazed by the turnover of the retail business: three months after the opening, daily sales of “Baton” began to exceed 50-60 thousand rubles. On Friday and Saturday, revenue reached 140-150 thousand rubles. “These are fantastic numbers for a bread industry,” says Roman. Retail margin reached 75%; however, they had to spend money on logistics: the products were delivered in a minivan, the rental of which cost 3 thousand rubles. in a day; another 200-300 thousand rubles. per month was spent on packaging so that the products do not lose their appearance during transportation.
It soon became clear that the premises in Krasnogorsk were not suitable for large-scale production: the furnaces did not have enough electrical power. Bunyakov found new premises: in the fall of 2014, the opportunity arose to build a bakery in the administrative building of the Danilovsky market. This would reduce logistics costs.
Roman estimated the initial investment at 13 million rubles, but his partners in both Varenishna and Baton were not ready for such investments. As a result, Bunyakov left both projects and decided to act alone. Olga Dobychina refused to discuss with RBC the reasons and circumstances of the separation from Roman Bunyakov.
In 2015, the entrepreneur built the Glavkhleb bakery. In reality, at the start, investments in production amounted to 9 million rubles: 1.5 million went to repairs, the rest to the purchase of equipment. Monthly rent cost 250 thousand rubles. “Since I sell kitchen equipment, I naturally wanted to supply myself with the best that is on the market. To create not just a bakery, but a whole showroom,” says Bunyakov. He still hasn’t given up his hired job at Technoflot and uses his own bakery to demonstrate the capabilities of kitchen equipment to potential clients. Glavkhleb began selling baked goods to bakeries, including Baton, farm stores, coffee shops and restaurants.
Often, beginning entrepreneurs imagine a “family” bakery as a small production facility and a shop attached to it. However, in Moscow, according to the entrepreneur, such a business model does not work. “Production with only one point is a disaster,” says Roman. — On the one hand, the bakery needs power reserves so that production can be quickly increased. On the other hand, this is a large investment in equipment. The stove alone can cost a million rubles. You need to buy a large-capacity refrigerator right away, but at first you fill it only a third. It makes no sense to keep such a colossus for the sake of even one super-successful point of sale.” According to his calculations, the cost of a croissant in production serving one retail outlet will be 45 rubles, and if there are ten outlets - already 19 rubles. In retail, such a croissant can be sold for 100 rubles.
It would seem that bread is a commodity of everyday demand, but it is almost impossible to predict sales. According to the founder of the KhlebNikoff bakery and confectionery, Ekaterina Volkova, the business of bakeries and confectioneries is highly seasonal, depending on the weather, traffic jams and many other factors: sometimes there is an influx of people, and in bad weather, most of the products - up to 60% - have to be written off. “Since we are focused on the above-average level, we simply cannot display yesterday’s bread,” says Volkova.
Production costs
In April 2016, Ginza managers began reconstructing the Danilovsky Market building, which housed the bakery, and Glavkhleb was asked to move out. I had to look for a new premises. Moving and renovation of a 400 sq.m. premises. m near the Semenovskaya metro station cost the entrepreneur 1 million rubles. In addition, some small customers found it inconvenient to travel to a new address to purchase products, and they changed suppliers. Even the owners of Baton refused bread. “They were replaced by larger customers. For example, Rappoport restaurants,” says Roman. “They, of course, ask for special prices, demand that each bun be properly packaged and labeled, but the volumes are also large.” One of the clients was the Doubleby coffee chain, where Bunyakov began supplying croissants and bagels with cherries.
For Bunyakov’s business, a large number of wholesale customers is critical: savings are achieved through the volume of purchases of raw materials and the full load of equipment. The more diverse clients, the more stable the purchases. Today, the Glavkhleb bakery has more than 300 trading partners who buy thousands of products every day.
Glavkhleb has a staff of 52 people, 15 of whom are couriers. Flour is purchased in Perm and Orenburg, but even the most expensive flour on the market does not always meet quality standards. “You buy two 100 kg bags - good flour. If you buy a ton, it’s bad,” Bunyakov complains. He spends 25-30 thousand rubles on experiments with products. per month. Daily turnover is 125-130 thousand rubles, profit is 12-13% of this amount. The entrepreneur expects to recoup investments in production in four years.
According to Roman, in the fresh bread market it is easier to make money in retail rather than in production. The volume of investments is lower, but they turn around faster, the margins are higher. At the beginning of 2016, he and his partner Pavel Smirnov opened the Rogalik deli on Nikolskaya Street. Today, about 7% of Glavkhleb’s total production goes there, but entrepreneurs plan to open seven more such points in Moscow. The most sustainable business model in the fresh bread market is the bakery, which has both wholesale customers and its own retail. Wholesale ensures production capacity, and retail brings the main margin.
"Healthy" and unnecessary
The founder of the Little Zhuravlev Bakery, Sergei Zhuravlev, also believes that the production business in the bakery business needs to be combined with the retail business: his company is simultaneously developing a bakery and a network of bakeries.
The spouses Sergei and Alena Zhuravlev opened their first point at the Rogozhsky market two years ago. They had long dreamed of owning their own cozy bakery while traveling around European cities, and in December 2015 they decided to make their dream come true. We started with production: we rented a premises of about 200 square meters. m near the Rogozhsky market, as well as a point with an area of 25 sq. m in the market itself, where they began to sell finished products. All the recipes and technologies were brought from travel, from master classes, and some were worked out at home, in the family kitchen, a year before the opening of production.
The source of investment was the income of another business of the Zhuravlevs - the production of marmalade candies in jars “Vkusnaya Pomoshch”. Production costs amounted to more than 6 million rubles. — they went to renovate the premises and purchase equipment. The most difficult thing was finding bakers and a technologist. “The market for professional bakers in Moscow is very small, the work is quite hard and not well paid - it’s very difficult to find good people,” Sergei complains.
It took about 1.5 million more rubles to open a point on the Rogozhsky market, then the Zhuravlevs opened four more points. “Our 50% of products are Russian and Soviet pastries that everyone understands, and the remaining 50% are recipes from different countries,” says Zhuravlev. “The markup is 100%.” Now the bakery produces about 1.5-2 thousand units of products per day, which are sold through its own outlets, as well as through partners: small restaurants, bakeries, coffee shops. According to the entrepreneur’s calculations, production reached payback after a year of operation; retail outlets reach profitability faster—in about four months. By the end of the year, Sergey plans to increase the number of establishments under his brand to 15 through the sale of a franchise. “Now there are already several buyers, and we are selecting premises. This is a profitable business,” says Zhuravlev.
However, not everyone succeeds: the meager assortment of the bakery can become a stumbling block. In September 2015, entrepreneur Alexander Skuratovsky “for several million rubles” bought an unprofitable bakery in Solnechnogorsk in the hope of bringing it to profit through retail sales. Skuratovsky organized his Kolhoz sales points: he rented a retail space from the Lavka-Lavka farmer’s cooperative in Mega-Khimki and opened a point at the Usachevsky market.
But sales were not going well: people wanted sweet rolls and “confectionery” more, while Skuratovsky offered “healthy” bread, without the use of yeast, only with “live” starters, and several types of cookies of his own production. “We had about 12 types of “healthy” bread, but the range for retail turned out to be quite modest,” complains Alexander. At the same time, he sold bread wholesale to health food stores; they brought at least some profit, while their points were operating at a loss.
The cost of Skuratovsky’s bread was 20-30 rubles, and he sold loaves for 130 rubles, but the entire margin disappeared after deducting the costs of logistics and rent. In September last year, the entrepreneur abandoned his outlets, leaving only wholesale, and in the next two months he worked at zero. However, this did not save him from closing the enterprise. “I realized that you can leave the bakery as a family hobby, but it is impossible to create a more or less interesting business in this “boutique” niche with such a small assortment,” says Skuratovsky.